Seed perspective: Gonzaga is the best team in the West by a substantial margin, but the Zags, despite reaching have performed well under the lights of the championship. Still, Gonzaga has a 70 percent likelihood of reaching the Elite Eight, according to our model, and the third-best odds of any team to accomplish the national championship game (26 percent).
Should Gonzaga face Syracuse in the next round, the Orange’s zone defense will give the Bulldogs trouble. Here is the best offense Mark Few has had in Spokane, but it may be tested by some of those terrific defenses from the West: Four of the top 15 can be seen in this region, including the top two in Texas Tech and Michigan.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 4 Florida State. A fixture at the KenPom Top 20 for the majority of the season, the Seminoles are hoping to build on last year’s tournament run, which saw them come within a 4-point margin of creating the Final Four. FSU has a dominant defense (No. 9 at Pomeroy’s ratings) and a balanced roster that saw four players collect at least 2.5 win shares. This draw isn’t horrible, either: Vermont is not especially difficult as a first-round foe, and Marquette is quite beatable (more on that below). No. 1 seeded Gonzaga probably looms then, and also we give FSU a 24 percent chance from the Zags — but the Seminoles could have a 48 percent chance of creating the Final Four if they were to pull off the upset.
Do not wager on: No. 5 Marquette. Teams seeded fifth aren’t usually good bets to make it past the Sweet 16 anyway, but Marquette could be an especially bad pick. As stated by the FiveThirtyEight power ratings, the Golden Eagles are by far the worst No. 5 seed in the area, and a first-round date with breakout mid-major celebrity Ja Morant didn’t do any favors. Marquette has a star power of its own in junior guard Markus Howard, who ranks sixth in the nation with an average of 25 points per game, but this team dropped five of its last six matches and has a tough tournament road ahead of it.
Cinderella see: No. 10 Florida. They are poised to do some damage that they are here, although the Gators might have been one of the last bubble teams to sneak in the field of 68. They brought Nevada, a so-so No. 7 seed, in the first round, and also we provide Florida a 42 percent chance of pulling the upset that. Last year’s nationwide runner-up, Michigan, likely waits in Round two, and that is a difficult matchup (23 percentage odds for Florida) — but when the Gators win, they’ve a 38 percent chance of making the Elite Eight. Than the, Florida appears better in a region with a number of good-but-flawed options.
Player to watch: Brandon Clarke This Zags’ linchpin isn’t the consensus lottery pick, nor the two veteran guards who have collectively started 87 percent of the games of Gonzaga over the past two seasons. It is Brandon Clarke, a move from San Jose State who’s in his first busy season with the group. He is perhaps the most underappreciated player in the nation.
On a group that typically features a 7-footer protecting the rim, it’s Clarke. Clarke has responded by placing a single-season blocks record and posting the maximum block rate of any group under Few.
“Should I feel as when I could find a great, fast jump , I’ll pretty much leap with anybody,” Clarke told me. “I mean, I’ve seen Zion (Williamson) coming down through the street before TV, and if I can not jump at the ideal time, I likely would not jump with him, but… I do not really see myself not jumping with anyone.”
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Syracuse (48 percent); No. 10 Florida over No. 7 Nevada (42 percent); No. 12 Murray State over No. 5 Marquette (32 percent)
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